A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
